Overview
- Polls published on November 14 show Marine Le Pen leading first-round voting intentions in the low-to-mid 30s while Jean‑Luc Mélenchon has moved into clear second place at roughly 17–19 percent.
- The Elabe study fielded Nov. 12–13 on 1,500 respondents reports Raphaël Glucksmann falling to about 13–14 percent and gives Le Pen large leads in head-to-head second-round matchups, including about 68.5% versus Mélenchon.
- A Toluna Harris Interactive poll for M6 and RTL finds only 26% of Glucksmann first-round voters would back Mélenchon in a Le Pen–Mélenchon runoff, while 62% say they would cast a blank or abstain, limiting left‑wing consolidation.
- New or recent entrants change the centre and right arithmetic: Teddy Riner registers roughly 4–4.5% in broad-field scenarios and David Lisnard rises to about 8–10.5% in some tested lineups, fragmenting votes that could otherwise coalesce against Le Pen.
- These surveys are scenario-dependent snapshots taken six months before the 2027 vote, so small shifts or new candidacies could alter the field but current transfer patterns give Le Pen a structural runoff advantage.