Overview
- The Ifop survey, which began on Saturday evening and overlapped the Oct. 17 riots, puts Marine Le Pen at 34–38% in first-round scenarios depending on the candidate field.
- Le Pen leads decisively in hypothetical runoffs, with Ifop showing margins roughly between the mid-50s and high-60s percent against tested opponents.
- Ifop director Frédéric Dabi and several commentators link the polling rise to the riots because voters see Le Pen as a credible defender of public order, but the survey did not ask about the unrest and cannot prove causation.
- Le Pen faces an unresolved legal risk after a July appeals court confirmed a three-year sentence including one year of electronic monitoring; she has appealed to the Court of Cassation and a final decision could arrive during the campaign window.
- The government is moving to tighten pretrial detention for those arrested in the unrest, and conservative figures are urging rival candidates to withdraw to form a united right that could capitalize on Le Pen’s momentum.