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LDP–Komeito Split Leaves Takaichi’s Path to Premiership Uncertain Ahead of Oct. 20 Vote

Opposition groups move to field a single challenger with Komeito’s backing before the Oct. 20 parliamentary vote.

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Sanae Takaichi, the newly-elected leader of Japan's ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), leaves the LDP headquarters in Tokyo, Friday, Oct. 10, 2025. (Keisuke Hosojima/Kyodo News via AP)

Overview

  • Komeito ended its 26-year partnership with the Liberal Democratic Party and vowed to support a unified opposition candidate against Sanae Takaichi.
  • Without Komeito, the LDP holds 197 seats in the lower house and 101 in the upper house, short of majorities in both chambers.
  • Talks among the Constitutional Democratic Party, Japan Innovation Party and Democratic Party for the People focus on agreeing a single nominee to challenge Takaichi, with her confirmation vote postponed and in doubt.
  • Komeito’s departure was driven by unease over Takaichi’s hawkish security posture and ambiguity on Yasukuni Shrine visits, as well as her appointment of ex-minister Koichi Hagiuda to a senior party role.
  • A compressed diplomatic calendar heightens the stakes, with ASEAN on Oct. 26, a planned visit by President Donald Trump on Oct. 27–29, and APEC on Oct. 31, and officials indicating a new government would need to be formed by around Oct. 24 to participate.