Overview
- A Mainichi simulation using 2024 election results estimates that cutting 50 proportional-representation seats would leave the LDP and Nippon Ishin with 212 seats, above the lowered majority threshold of 208.
- The plan contemplates shrinking the proportional block from 176 to roughly 126 seats, with reallocation across 11 regions that would cut eight seats in Kinki and two each in Hokkaido and Shikoku.
- Modeling indicates the reduction would hit small and mid-size parties hardest because they rely on proportional lists, while larger parties and Ishin’s Osaka base are buffered by single-member district wins.
- Nippon Ishin has treated the cut as a nonnegotiable coalition condition and has signaled it could exit the partnership if a bill is not filed in this session.
- Criticism is mounting from editorials and regional leaders over the rush and potential erosion of local representation, and LDP lawmaker Takeshi Iwaya has publicly opposed pushing through the change.