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LDP Set for Oct. 4 Vote, With Runoff Likely in Contest to Succeed Ishiba

Early tallies put Koizumi ahead with lawmakers, with Takaichi leading party members, making the runoff’s lawmaker‑weighted rules pivotal.

Overview

  • The first round will combine 295 Diet votes and 295 party‑member votes for a total of 590, and no candidate is expected to win an outright majority.
  • If required, the runoff will shift to 342 votes made up of 295 Diet votes and 47 prefectural votes, elevating the influence of lawmakers and prefectural federations.
  • Campaigns intensified their final push on Oct. 3 as candidates sought endorsements from party heavyweights, including Taro Aso, Fumio Kishida, Yoshihide Suga, and Shigeru Ishiba.
  • Ballots from party members will be tallied on the morning of Oct. 4, Diet members vote from 1 p.m. at LDP headquarters, first‑round results are expected after 2 p.m., and a runoff winner could be announced after 3 p.m.
  • Five candidates are on the ballot—Shinjiro Koizumi, Sanae Takaichi, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Toshimitsu Motegi, and Takayuki Kobayashi—and the winner will serve through September 2027.