Overview

• Lawmakers in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will decide Monday whether to bring forward a leadership election that could remove Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
• New tallies from Yomiuri and Kyodo show rising support to call the race, though a majority of combined Diet members and regional representatives is still required.
• Ishiba’s coalition no longer holds majorities in either chamber, forcing reliance on opposition votes and intensifying pressure for a leadership change.
• Political uncertainty has weighed on markets this week, with the yen weakening and the 30-year Japanese government bond yield hitting a record high.
• Analysts see a high likelihood of a contest and of Ishiba losing, with potential successors including Shinjiro Koizumi and Sanae Takaichi, and a change in leadership could tilt policy toward looser fiscal measures, delay a supplementary budget, and influence the Bank of Japan’s rate path.