Overview
- Blockchain analysis found at least 50 newly created Polymarket wallets placed large “Yes” bets on a U.S.–Iran ceasefire hours before President Trump announced the deal, yielding hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits.
- Polymarket labeled the ceasefire market disputed, which has delayed some payouts while the platform reviews whether the event met its stated conditions.
- Rep. Richie Torres urged the CFTC to investigate the trading pattern, and Sen. Richard Blumenthal pressed Polymarket to explain war‑related markets and its measures to deter insider betting.
- Because Polymarket uses proxy smart‑contract wallets, public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the accounts, so only the exchange can link wallets to real people or prior accounts.
- Kalshi barred political candidates from betting on their own races and Polymarket banned trading based on confidential information, while U.S. regulators back federal oversight over state bans and Germany blocks deposits as it deems such betting illegal.