Lawmaker, Business Leader Predict Further Bank of Russia Cut in December

The next rate decision falls on 19 December, with officials maintaining a conditional path tied to disinflation.

Overview

The Bank of Russia cut the key rate by 0.5 percentage point in October to 16.5%, marking a fourth consecutive reduction and keeping guidance dependent on inflation trends.
Senator Andrey Epishin told TASS he expects another December cut, leaning toward 0.5 percentage point and allowing that a full percentage point is possible, which would imply 15.5–16%.
RSPP head Alexander Shokhin said he anticipates a further 0.5 percentage point decrease before year-end and 0.5 percentage point reductions each quarter in 2026, framing it as his expectation rather than policy.
Central bank communications emphasize preserving sufficient monetary tightness to return inflation to the 4% target, which the regulator forecasts for 2026.
In its baseline outlook the Bank projects an average key rate of 13–15% next year, with the final Board meeting of 2025 set for 19 December.