Overview
- NOAA and NWS say a true atmospheric river is likely to arrive late next week, with guidance focusing on October 24–27 and CPC outlooks extending impacts through October 25–31.
- Forecasters expect widespread heavy precipitation from northern California through Oregon and Washington, with heavy mountain snow in the Sierra Nevada, Cascades and parts of the northern Rockies.
- CPC’s Probabilistic Hazards Outlook flags a high risk of heavy precipitation October 25–26 in northern and central California and southern Oregon, with moderate risk extending north through October 28.
- Flood potential is elevated for western Washington, Oregon and northwestern California, and coastal and high terrain areas may see hazardous winds, with gusts locally exceeding about 37 mph.
- Models also suggest the moisture plume could progress across the central U.S. toward the Great Lakes around October 27, indicating a possible late-October storm for Michigan that remains uncertain.