Overview
- The Deutscher Wetterdienst’s short-range outlook for 15–22 November 2026 calls for changeable, often rainy and windy weather across Germany rather than a revived warm spell.
- Seasonal ensemble outputs from NOAA’s CFS and the ECMWF lean toward a Central European winter about 1–2°C warmer than the long-term average with above-average precipitation.
- Regional reporters note many trees in North Rhine‑Westphalia and northern Germany are still holding leaves well into November.
- Meteorologists say leaf-fall timing is set by recent local factors such as drought stress, nutrient status and the first frosts and that reliable deterministic forecasts only extend about seven to ten days.
- Practical effects could include wetter, milder conditions in lowlands with greater snow risk confined to higher terrain such as the Sauerland, and a need to rely on model updates rather than folk rules for short-term planning.