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Lancet Study Warns USAID Cuts Could Cause Over 14 Million Additional Deaths by 2030

The analysis cautions that shifting most development aid under the State Department could unravel decades of lifesaving health gains.

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Overview

  • The Lancet study projects that if the mid-2025 reductions to USAID funding remain, more than 14 million avoidable deaths will occur globally by 2030.
  • Researchers estimate that about 4.5 million of the projected fatalities would be children under five years old, highlighting a potential child health crisis.
  • Analysis of data from 2001 to 2021 credits USAID programs with averting roughly 91 to 92 million deaths worldwide, including around 30 million among young children.
  • In January 2025 President Trump froze foreign aid and Secretary Rubio ordered cuts to over 80% of USAID initiatives and their integration into the State Department.
  • Co-authors warn that without Congress restoring aid levels, many low- and middle-income countries could face a humanitarian shock comparable to a global pandemic or major conflict.