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Lancet Study Sees 30.5 Million Cancer Cases by 2050, With 42% of Deaths Preventable

Population aging drives the projected rise, with age-standardized cancer rates expected to dip slightly.

Overview

  • In 2023 there were an estimated 18.5 million new cancer cases and 10.4 million deaths, with cases projected to reach 30.5 million by mid-century.
  • About 42% of 2023 cancer deaths were linked to modifiable risks, led by tobacco which accounted for 21.4% of deaths.
  • Trends diverge by income level, as age-standardized incidence fell in high- and upper-middle-income countries but rose sharply in lower-middle- and low-income countries from 1990 to 2023.
  • In low-income settings, unprotected sex—primarily via HPV transmission—is the leading preventable cancer risk, and evidence supports effective HPV vaccination.
  • Germany illustrates mixed progress, with a 3.3% rise in age-standardized incidence since 1990 alongside a 24.9% drop in cancer mortality, reflecting gains in prevention and treatment.