Overview

• New cases are projected to grow from 18.5 million in 2023 to 30.5 million in 2050 largely due to population aging, even as age-standardized incidence is forecast to decline by 5.7% from 2024 to 2050.
• Trends diverged by income level from 1990 to 2023, with age-standardized incidence falling in high-income (−3.4%) and upper-middle-income (−8.8%) countries but rising in lower-middle-income (+28.6%) and low-income (+23.6%) countries.
• About 42% of the 10.4 million cancer deaths in 2023 were attributable to modifiable factors, with tobacco the largest contributor at 21.4% and unprotected sex linked to HPV the top modifiable risk in low-income settings.
• Researchers used the Global Burden of Disease framework to estimate 1990–2023 cancer burden and project trends to 2050, while Lancet commentators cautioned that uneven data quality in many countries adds uncertainty.
• In Germany, the five deadliest cancers were lung, colorectal, breast, pancreatic and prostate, age-standardized incidence rose slightly to 328 per 100,000 since 1990, and mortality fell by 24.9%.