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Lancet Study Forecasts 14 Million Deaths from USAID Cuts

A Lancet analysis quantifies how the abrupt cancellation of most USAID programs threatens to reverse decades of global health progress

Congolese refugees look through a corrugated metal fence at the final batches of food delivered by the now-dismantled United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in a storage and food delivery area at the Musenyi refugee site in Giharo, on May 7.
FILE - Former President George W. Bush attends a baseball game, May 15, 2025, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/LM Otero, File)

Overview

  • The study projects over 14 million avoidable deaths by 2030 following the Trump administration’s March directive to cancel 83 percent of USAID initiatives
  • Researchers warn that 4.5 million of the projected fatalities would be among children under five
  • Between 2001 and 2021, USAID-funded programs are credited with preventing nearly 92 million deaths across 133 countries by tackling HIV/AIDS, malaria, diarrheal diseases and tuberculosis
  • Courts and members of Congress have filed legal challenges contesting the administration’s authority to dissolve USAID and fold its remaining programs into the State Department Global donors and aid organizations caution that frozen U.S. aid is triggering cascading crises comparable in scale to pandemics or major armed conflicts