Overview
- Global projections show new cases rising from 18.5 million in 2023 to 30.5 million in 2050, while the age-standardised incidence is expected to decline by 5.7% over 2024–2050.
- About 42% of 2023 cancer deaths were linked to modifiable risks, with tobacco the largest single contributor at 21.4% and HPV-related transmission a leading preventable driver in low-income countries.
- Trends diverge by income level, with age-standardised incidence falling in high and upper‑middle‑income countries since 1990 but rising sharply in lower‑middle and low‑income countries, which are projected to bear most cases and deaths.
- The analysis, using Global Burden of Disease methods across 204 countries and 47 cancer types, underscores policy levers including tobacco and alcohol control, broader HPV and hepatitis B vaccination, earlier screening, and treatment scale‑up.
- Authors and commentators caution that data quality and availability vary widely, while examples such as Germany’s 24.9% drop in cancer mortality since 1990 illustrate gains from prevention and improved care.