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Lancet GBD Study Projects 18.6 Million Cancer Deaths by 2050

Experts say demographic change drives the rise, with prevention gaps and limited capacity placing lower-income countries at greatest risk.

Overview

  • Global projections estimate 30.5 million cancer diagnoses and 18.6 million deaths in 2050, increases driven largely by population growth and aging.
  • More than half of new cases and about two-thirds of deaths are expected in low- and middle-income countries, highlighting stark inequities in care.
  • In 2023, 42% of cancer deaths were linked to 44 modifiable risks, with tobacco the leading risk globally and unsafe sex the top risk in low-income countries.
  • Despite rising absolute counts, age-standardized cancer mortality fell 24% worldwide from 1990 to 2023, while rates increased in low- and middle-income countries.
  • Researchers urge stronger prevention, timely diagnostics and equitable treatment access, as some clinicians also promote predictive genomics to identify hereditary risk.