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Lancet Forecast: Global Cancer Cases to 30.5 Million, Deaths to 18.6 Million by 2050

The study points to demographics as the main driver rather than worsening age-adjusted rates.

Overview

  • The GBD 2023 analysis finds most of the projected increase comes from population growth and aging, with global age-standardised incidence and mortality not expected to rise.
  • Over half of new cases and about two-thirds of deaths by 2050 are projected in low- and middle-income countries, highlighting widening inequities.
  • In 2023 there were 18.5 million new cases and 10.4 million deaths worldwide, increases of roughly 105% and 74% since 1990.
  • An estimated 42% of cancer deaths in 2023 were attributable to 44 modifiable risk factors, with tobacco linked to about 21% of all cancer deaths.
  • Authors and commentators urge greater funding, prevention, improved surveillance and equitable cancer-control efforts, especially in resource-limited settings.