Overview

• The UK government's welfare cuts are projected to push 250,000 people, including 50,000 children, into relative poverty by 2030, according to the Department for Work and Pensions' impact assessment.
• Changes include a 50% cut and freeze to the universal credit health element for new claimants and stricter eligibility for Personal Independence Payment (PIP), affecting over 800,000 recipients.
• The reforms aim to save £3.4 billion by 2030, falling short of the £5 billion initially forecast due to revised Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projections.
• Labour MPs and campaigners have criticized the cuts as harmful to vulnerable populations, with some calling for alternative measures such as a wealth tax.
• The OBR warns that global risks, including potential US tariffs, could further erode fiscal headroom, raising concerns about future tax hikes or spending cuts.