Overview
- YouGov polled 2,520 adults between October 18 and 19 and found Labour on 27%, the Conservatives on 23% and Reform UK on 22%.
- The result is being read as a 'Burnham bounce' that has increased Labour's national lead and prompted renewed speculation about the timing of a snap election.
- Reform's decline follows ITV reporting and questions over donations plus a standards probe involving Nigel Farage, and party allies have dismissed the poll as inconsistent.
- Electoral Calculus and MRP projections translate the national vote shares into seats in different ways but commonly show Labour short of an outright Commons majority and likely needing Liberal Democrat support.
- Smaller parties have slipped with the Lib Dems at 11% and the Greens at 10% as the Greens face controversy over remarks on Zionism, and voters are watching next week's Budget for measures such as higher bank profit levies that could sway opinion.