Overview

• New reports indicate Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves plan to tie expected tax rises to Brexit’s drag on growth and Nigel Farage’s 2016 campaign.
• A City AM/Freshwater poll shows Reform UK at 35%, with other surveys in the low 30s, as Labour sits near 20% and the Conservatives lag further behind.
• The Independent reports the Treasury is bracing for an OBR downgrade to productivity forecasts worth about £20bn, with some estimates closer to £30bn, prompting talk of tax measures at the Budget.
• Rachel Reeves has urged business leaders to talk up the economy, even as an ICAEW survey records three‑year‑low confidence following the employer National Insurance rise.
• Analysts question Reform’s uncosted pledges, citing multibillion‑pound gaps flagged by the IFS, while Boris Johnson claims the party’s polling strength will vanish.