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Labour Set for Heavy Losses Before Local and Devolved Elections

Fresh polling signals a voter realignment that lifts Reform UK and regional nationalists.

Overview

  • Polling on Wednesday pointed to Labour losing hundreds of seats in Thursday's elections, with national vote share estimates near 17% and Reform UK around 24%.
  • Reform UK is positioned to gain in former Labour areas, and projections in London show Greens taking several councils, with Reform challenging Labour in Barking and targeting Conservative-run Bromley.
  • In Wales, surveys put Labour near 15% for the Senedd, boosting Plaid Cymru and Reform, while in Scotland the SNP is expected to remain the strongest party and Labour risks slipping behind Reform in some areas.
  • A JL Partners survey for Policy Exchange reported only about one third of Muslim voters would back Labour in a general election, with many considering pro‑Gaza independents or the Greens in local contests.
  • Police are investigating antisemitic online posts by Green figures in Lambeth, and Reform candidates have faced criticism for anti‑Muslim rhetoric, raising tensions that could shape turnout and local alliances.