Labour Predicted to Sweep to Power with 385 Seats, Tories to Retain Just 169, Predicts YouGov Poll

The poll, commissioned by the Conservative Britain Alliance, indicates a significant collapse in Conservative support, with a swing of 11.5% to Labour.

• The YouGov survey of 14,000 people predicts that the Conservatives will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385, giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.
• The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses.
• The result would be the biggest collapse in support for a governing party since 1906, with an 11.5 per cent swing to Labour.
• The poll was commissioned by a group of Conservative donors called the Conservative Britain Alliance and carried out by YouGov, working with Lord Frost.
• The results are primarily driven by a collapse in the Conservative vote rather than a surge in Labour’s. In constituencies across England and Wales, the Labour vote is up by an average of just four per cent compared to 2019, whereas the Conservative vote is down by an average of 18 per cent.

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