Overview
- Multiple Labour MPs, ministers and strategists say conversations have shifted from grumbling to concrete questions of who, how and when to move against the prime minister.
- The latest More in Common poll reported by The Independent puts Labour on 18% in third place behind Reform on 31% and the Conservatives on 19%, reinforcing concerns over the party’s trajectory.
- MPs warn that a Budget breaching Labour’s no‑income‑tax‑rise pledge could be a flashpoint, with Rachel Reeves having signalled rises and deputy leader Lucy Powell cautioning that tax hikes would damage trust.
- Tactical debate focuses on timing, with some MPs eyeing January if the Budget lands badly and others arguing to wait for a verdict after May’s elections in Wales, Scotland and English councils.
- Party management moves and controversies are adding pressure, with the whip restored to four welfare‑rebellion MPs while Lisa Nandy apologised for a governance breach and David Lammy faced criticism over a mistaken prisoner release.