Overview

• The by-election was prompted by Labour MP Mike Amesbury's resignation following his conviction for assault and subsequent suspension from the party.
• Labour has selected Karen Shore, a local teacher and councillor, as its candidate, while Reform UK is expected to announce its candidate soon.
• Polling and betting odds suggest Reform UK could win the seat, with a significant swing from former Conservative voters boosting their chances.
• Labour faces criticism from disillusioned voters over issues such as cuts to pensioners' fuel allowances, which are impacting its support base.
• The outcome of the by-election could have broader implications for the political landscape, including challenges for both Keir Starmer's Labour government and Kemi Badenoch's Conservative leadership.