Overview
- The YouGov poll of 2,520 adults, taken between October 18 and 19, puts Labour on 27%, the Conservatives on 23% and Reform UK on 22%.
- Reform’s fall follows media investigations and donation controversies that have drawn standards and police attention and dented public support for the party.
- Electoral Calculus seat projections based on current shares suggest Labour would be short of the 326 seats needed for a Commons majority and likely need Liberal Democrat backing.
- Labour’s gains are driven by recoveries among former Labour voters and a surge with 18–24-year-olds while smaller parties including the Greens and Lib Dems have slipped.
- Rising talk of a snap election has intensified but the prime minister has publicly said he will wait and the upcoming Budget is being treated as a key test of the government’s standing.