Overview
- New YouGov voting-intention figures put Labour on 17% with Reform on 27%, the Greens at a record 16% and the Liberal Democrats on 15%, leaving four parties within two points of each other behind Reform.
- Half of 2024 Labour voters now say they would not back the party, with 18% switching to the Greens, 13% to the Liberal Democrats and 11% to Reform, while the Greens lead among 18–24s and Reform leads among over‑65s.
- The polling shock follows Labour’s third-place finish on about 11% in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election, won by Plaid Cymru with Reform second, in a seat Labour had held since 1999.
- Senior figures including Wes Streeting and David Lammy urged colleagues to learn from Caerphilly and tell a more compelling story of delivery, as newly elected deputy leader Lucy Powell, who won with 54%, promised a stronger grassroots voice.
- Analysts say a tax-raising, spending-tight Budget next month will test Labour’s strategy, and some commentary highlights easier leadership-challenge rules as fuelling talk of vulnerability without an open move to unseat the leader.