Overview
- Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves now publicly frame Brexit as a key drag on productivity and the public finances, citing the OBR’s roughly 4% long‑run productivity hit and the Bank of England governor’s warning of a persistent negative impact.
- BoE MPC member Swati Dhingra recently highlighted research pointing to larger losses than the OBR’s earlier view, estimating a 6–8% output shortfall and a 12–18% investment hit versus remaining in the EU.
- The Observer reports the budget is being shaped around a practical reset with Brussels and targeted growth measures, including stronger capital‑markets incentives, a turbocharged EMI scheme, potential ISA and stamp duty changes, and the £25bn Sterling 20 plan to channel pension and insurance money into UK private assets.
- Trade data cited in new analysis show goods exports are still below 2019 levels even as services have held up, with overall trade volumes growing at a pace similar to France and Germany.
- Labour is also elevating Brexit as a campaign issue to counter Nigel Farage and Reform UK, with polling referenced by supporters indicating more voters now view Brexit as a failure even as critics warn the strategy could backfire.