Overview

• Katelin McInerney flipped Kiama to Labor in a rare government gain at a NSW by-election, the first reported since 1996.
• Mark Speakman vowed to stay on as leader through 2027 as senior Liberals, including Natalie Ward and Scott Farlow, publicly backed him.
• Potential successor Kellie Sloane ruled out moving a spill at Tuesday’s party-room meeting, tempering immediate leadership speculation.
• Analysts reported roughly 60% two-party preferred for Labor, with swing estimates varying, while primary votes hovered near 37% for Labor and about 26% for the Liberals.
• Premier Chris Minns urged caution on broader takeaways, noting the contest’s unique context after Gareth Ward’s conviction and the strong vote for independents and minor parties.