Overview

• The department’s Federal Register notice cites a “current and imminent labor shortage” on farms linked to increased immigration enforcement and warns of supply shock–driven food shortages.
• A study referenced in the filing finds a 10% drop in farm labor would cut output by 4.2% and revenue by 5.5%, and the department notes roughly 42% of the crop workforce is unable to enter or is exiting the labor force.
• Bureau of Labor Statistics data show the agricultural workforce fell by about 80,000 between January and August 2025.
• The filings state U.S. workers are unlikely to replace departing foreign labor in sufficient numbers and say employers will lean more on the H-2A program, even as some farmers report fewer H-2A arrivals amid ICE raids.
• The same documents justify cutting H-2A wage rates to avert disruptions, a move condemned by the United Farm Workers, which estimates a $2.46 billion annual loss in farmworker pay.