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Labor Day Box Office Forecast: Weapons Poised to Retake No. 1 as Caught Stealing Debuts Modestly

A quiet holiday frame reflects a thin late‑summer slate, with the season tracking roughly flat with last year.

Overview

  • New Line’s Weapons is projected to lead the four‑day frame with about $11–$12 million in its fourth weekend, reclaiming the top spot after last weekend’s limited KPop Demon Hunters run.
  • Sony/Columbia’s Caught Stealing earned about $1.2 million in Thursday previews and is expected to open to just over $10 million across 3,578 sites despite strong reviews and an 86%–87% Rotten Tomatoes score.
  • Industry trackers expect the Labor Day weekend to remain subdued and likely finish under $100 million in total domestic grosses.
  • The 2025 summer box office is pacing roughly in line with 2024, with estimates around $3.7 billion for the season after a May surge faded in August.
  • Other holiday titles are tracking to mid‑single‑digit openings, with The Roses targeting $7–$8 million and Universal’s Jaws 50th anniversary re‑release expected around $5–$8 million after a $950,000 preview.