Overview
- The WMO, SMN and NOAA report Pacific conditions near the La Niña threshold, estimating about a 50–55% chance of development between December and February, and they have not declared the event active.
- If it forms, agencies expect a weak, brief episode lasting weeks to a couple of months, with model guidance putting the probability of ENSO‑neutral conditions at roughly 65–75% by February–April 2026.
- Mexico faces a split pattern if La Niña emerges, with below‑average rainfall and heightened drought and wildfire risk in northern and central states, and wetter conditions along the Pacific slope, the southern Gulf and the Yucatán Peninsula.
- Specialists note that elevated background warmth can blunt typical La Niña cooling, so some regions may still run warmer than normal even as rainfall patterns shift.
- Argentina’s meteorological service highlights La Niña‑like signals and warns of stronger storms in coming months, citing probabilities for cooler‑than‑normal conditions in the Niño 3.4 region over the austral summer.