Overview

• The Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of La Niña at 71% for October–December and 54% for December–February, with strength most likely weak to moderate.
• ENSO conditions are neutral at present, keeping forecast confidence limited on how long a transition might last and how strongly it would influence winter weather.
• NOAA’s early outlook favors above-normal temperatures across the southern tier and the East Coast, with much of the heartland near normal and the Pacific Northwest potentially cooler.
• Precipitation probabilities tilt wetter for the Northern Rockies and the Ohio Valley, while many other regions—including parts of the Southwest—lean drier than average.
• Forecasters note a northern Pacific marine heat wave running 5–10°F above normal that could shift jet-stream behavior, improving snow odds for the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies and raising the risk of dry spells in southern ranges and the Sierra Nevada.