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La Niña Poised to Fade by Spring as El Niño Odds Build, NOAA Says

Forecasters held off on an El Niño watch because spring forecasts lose skill.

Overview

  • The Climate Prediction Center reports a 75% chance La Niña will transition to ENSO‑neutral between January and March while continuing to influence winter weather.
  • ENSO‑neutral conditions are favored through late spring, and forecasters place the chance of El Niño developing by late summer at about 61%.
  • A typical La Niña winter tends to be wetter and colder in the Pacific Northwest and drier across much of the southern United States, according to CPC guidance.
  • California has seen a wetter‑than‑expected start to the water year driven by strong atmospheric rivers, with statewide precipitation at roughly 157% of normal and LAX near 230% of normal.
  • Heavy storms have lifted most major reservoirs above seasonal averages and left snowpack near 91% of normal, though groundwater remains depleted in some areas, state experts say.