Overview
- A new Kyodo telephone survey projects the LDP to clear the 233-seat threshold for a majority, with the ruling camp potentially approaching the 261-seat “absolute stable majority.”
- The LDP holds the advantage in about 180 of 289 single-member districts and is estimated to take roughly 70 proportional-representation seats, according to the poll.
- The Centrist Reform Alliance is forecast to underperform at roughly 60 constituency wins and about 50 PR seats, after its co-leader Yoshihiko Noda vowed to take responsibility if results fall short.
- The Japan Innovation Party and the Democratic Party for the People appear to be losing ground, while smaller groups such as Sanseito and Team Mirai are poised for gains.
- About 20% of respondents remain undecided, with voter attention focused on cost-of-living relief and consumption-tax proposals.