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Kremlin Tax Plan Faces Business Revolt as Finance Ministry Weighs Revisions

Independent forecasts of near‑stagnant growth under tight monetary policy highlight a larger‑than‑expected 2026–2028 budget gap.

Overview

  • Draft measures for 2026 would cut the VAT exemption threshold for small firms from 60 million to 10 million rubles, pending parliamentary approval.
  • The government is weighing the removal of VAT and other tax benefits for IT companies, a possibility acknowledged by Digital Minister Maksut Shadayev.
  • Industry associations and entrepreneurs have sent protest letters warning of closures and layoffs, with groups saying more than 700,000 business owners would be affected.
  • A survey cited in reports found about one third of over 11,000 respondents would shut down if the tax changes take effect, and one quarter expect to reduce staff.
  • The Finance Ministry indicated it may adjust the package before the bill’s second reading, as the 2026 deficit is projected at 3.786 trillion rubles (1.6% of GDP) and growth is seen slowing to around 1.2%.