Overview
- Bitcoin recently moved just above its 200-week simple moving average near $62,358 following two short intraperiod drops below that line and weekly closes back above it.
- Kraken’s chief economist, Thomas Perfumo, says buying below the 200-week SMA has historically delivered median returns of about 113% after one year and about 313% after two years.
- The exchange reports that past buyers who accumulated under the line typically reached break-even in a median of two days and faced a median maximum drawdown of roughly 9% over the next year.
- Perfumo notes weekly closes below the 200-week SMA have been rare since 2017 and have often marked deep bear phases that proved fertile for long-term buyers, but he stresses past results do not guarantee future performance.
- The 200-week SMA averages roughly four years of price to smooth short-term noise and analysts warn that changing macro policy, including tighter U.S. central bank actions, could trigger another leg down or invalidate the historical pattern.