Overview

• Fresh Yomiuri surveys put Shinjiro Koizumi in front overall with projections of 191 votes to Sanae Takaichi’s 113 and Yoshimasa Hayashi’s 100, leaving a runoff highly likely as nearly 20% of votes remain uncommitted.
• Polls diverge on grassroots sentiment, with Kyodo finding Takaichi leading among eligible party members while Yomiuri shows Koizumi ahead among LDP supporters, reinforcing expectations of a two-stage vote on Oct. 4.
• Koizumi’s campaign apologized after reports that a lawmaker’s office circulated template online comments praising him or attacking rivals, prompting opposition demands for an LDP investigation and the aide’s resignation from a campaign role.
• Takaichi signaled she could seek to revisit a recent U.S.-linked trade arrangement, including a US$550 billion Japanese investment fund component, if it disadvantages Japan, while Koizumi voiced support for addressing any issues through established channels.
• Top contenders say they are open to expanding the coalition to stabilize minority governance, and government–party coordination points to an extraordinary Diet session in mid-October, likely from Oct. 14, to select the next prime minister.