Overview

• New tracking reported Sept. 28 shows Shinjiro Koizumi leading among Diet members and Sanae Takaichi expanding support in party‑member ballots, with Yoshimasa Hayashi trailing.
• The first round on Oct. 4 is unlikely to produce a majority, making a top‑two runoff the probable outcome under party rules.
• Party‑member postal ballots must be mailed by Oct. 1, spurring weekend outreach, regional visits and a debate in Tokyo by the five candidates.
• Former LDP policy chief Koichi Hagiuda endorsed Takaichi on Sept. 26, citing the goal of Japan’s first female prime minister and questioning continuity with Ishiba administration policies.
• A meaningful share of LDP lawmakers remain undeclared, leaving room for late movement despite current alignments.