Overview
- The Kultusministerkonferenz published new projections on Friday, Sept. 18 showing a national student peak of about 11.54 million in 2029 and a fall to roughly 10.58 million by 2040 driven mainly by birth declines since 2021.
- The decline will be uneven across Germany with west German large-area states facing only small drops by 2040 (around 3.6 percent) while east German large-area states could see falls near 21 percent.
- Hesse has moved fastest to respond by proposing to shorten the Referendariat from 21 to 18 months and to make a mandatory 'KI und digitale Welt' subject for Year 5, measures that prompted a protest of about 300 trainee teachers and trainers in Marburg.
- States face serious staffing limits as Hesse reports roughly 12,000 trained teachers missing and about 10,000 people teaching without formal qualifications, and unions such as GEW urge using smaller cohorts to reduce class sizes and protect jobs rather than cutting budgets.
- KMK stresses the model is conditional on fertility, migration and schooling trends so projections can change, and the new baseline is likely to trigger fights over school closures, training capacity, budgets and the quality of teacher preparation given Germany’s weak PISA results.