Particle.news
Download on the App Store
8 ARTICLES
·
4h ago

KMK Forecast Sees Student Peak in Early 2030s, With Earlier Declines in the East

The KMK ties the near‑term rise to recent immigration, with later declines driven by the post‑2022 drop in births.

Image
Image
Image
Die Zahl der Schülerinnen und Schüler in Deutschland wird in den kommenden Jahren weiter deutlich steigen und trotz eines nach 2032 erwarteten Rückgangs dann immer noch höher sein als heute. Das zeigen neue Berechnungen der Kultusministerkonferenz.

Overview

  • National enrollment is projected to rise from about 11.2 million in 2024 to nearly 11.8 million by 2032, then ease to roughly 11.3 million in 2040, remaining above today’s level.
  • West German rural states are expected to peak around 2033 at roughly eight percent above 2024, while eastern states begin falling from 2027 and are seen more than 16 percent lower by 2040; city‑states peak in 2028 and are projected about five percent lower by 2040.
  • Berlin is forecast to peak in 2028 before a roughly seven percent decline by 2040, and Brandenburg in 2027 before about a 16 percent drop, with primary schools in both states shrinking markedly.
  • The near‑term increase equates to almost 600,000 additional pupils nationwide, which the KMK translates into around 24,000 extra classes or nearly 1,200 schools.
  • About 230,000 pupils of Ukrainian origin are included in the baseline, the 2024 fertility rate is reported at 1.35 children per woman, and KMK president Simone Oldenburg urges action on teacher staffing, infrastructure and digital equipment.