Overview
- The KMK projects an increase from about 11.2 million pupils in 2024 to nearly 11.8 million in 2032, adding almost 600,000 children and young people.
- Accommodating the increase would require roughly 24,000 additional classes or nearly 1,200 new schools nationwide.
- After the 2032 high point, totals are expected to decline gradually to around 11.3 million by 2040, still about 77,000 above 2024.
- Regional paths diverge: western rural states peak in 2033 at roughly eight percent above 2024, eastern rural states begin falling from 2027 toward a loss of more than 16 percent by 2040, and city-states peak in 2028 before slipping by nearly five percent by 2040.
- Drivers include weaker birth cohorts following a drop in the birth rate since 2022, with the projection already counting roughly 230,000 pupils of Ukrainian origin.