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Kīlauea Subsurface Shift Halts Forecasting of Next Summit Fountain

USGS says a newly formed dike with elevated shallow seismicity has broken the models used to predict the volcano’s next fountaining episode.

Overview

  • USGS scientists report that a narrow, sheet-like dike opened beneath the northwest part of Kaluapele during the intrusion that took place between Sept. 30 and Oct. 2, producing swarms of shallow earthquakes.
  • Because magma is now moving through pre-existing fractures rather than following prior pathways, the agency says forecast windows for episode 55 fountaining can no longer be modeled.
  • Officials have kept Kīlauea at an ORANGE aviation color code to warn pilots and maintain heightened monitoring using seismic networks, tiltmeters, InSAR satellite imagery, and gas measurements.
  • Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park closed 1.3 miles of trails, including Halemaʻumaʻu Trail and part of Byron Ledge Trail, and warned visitors about rockfall, toxic gases, unstable cliffs, and glassy volcanic fragments that can irritate skin and eyes.
  • The 2018 summit collapse left fractures that now guide magma underground, so scientists say short-term alerts (hours to days) from instruments remain possible but longer-term timing for the next surface fountain is uncertain and could include new vents or intrusion into rift zones.