Particle.news
Download on the App Store
11 ARTICLES
·
1h ago

Kiel Study Finds Americans Bear 96% of Costs From Trump’s Tariffs

A sweeping Kiel analysis finds near-full pass-through to U.S. prices, sharpening the stakes of the Supreme Court’s expedited review of Trump’s emergency tariff powers.

Image
Image
Image
A new study from a German think tank found that foreign exporters paid only 4% of the US tariffs, with the rest paid by American buyers.

Overview

  • The report analyzes more than 25 million shipment records worth nearly $4 trillion from January 2024 through November 2025.
  • Researchers find U.S. import prices rise nearly one-for-one with tariff rates while trade volumes contract.
  • The study links the roughly $200 billion jump in 2025 customs revenue to dollars paid by American businesses and households.
  • Exporters in countries such as Brazil and India largely maintained dollar prices and cut shipment volumes rather than absorb tariff costs.
  • The White House rejects the findings as foreign exporters’ burden grows, while the CBO now estimates only about 5% of tariff hikes are offset by lower foreign prices and the Supreme Court fast-tracks challenges to the policy’s legal basis.