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3h ago

Kiel Institute Study Finds Americans Bore 96% of Costs From Recent U.S. Tariffs

The findings challenge claims that the levies are paid by foreign exporters.

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A new study from a German think tank found that foreign exporters paid only 4% of the US tariffs, with the rest paid by American buyers.

Overview

  • Researchers analyzed roughly $4 trillion in shipments from January 2024 through November 2025 to measure who absorbed tariff costs.
  • The study estimates American consumers and importers paid about 96% of the burden, with foreign exporters absorbing around 4%.
  • Co-author Julian Hinz said about $200 billion in tariff revenue last year was paid almost exclusively by Americans.
  • Foreign suppliers generally did not cut dollar prices, and exporters in Brazil and India reduced export volumes rather than lowering prices.
  • The results echo recent work by Yale’s Budget Lab and Harvard economists, undercutting assertions that tariffs transfer wealth from abroad to the United States.