Overview
- Total kharif area stood at 1,107 lakh hectares as of September 25, about 3 lakh hectares above the five‑year normal but roughly 1% below last year’s sowing.
- India’s monsoon rainfall from June 1 to September 26 was about 12% below normal, a shortfall that raises doubts about whether the intact acreage will translate into full crop output.
- Rainfall was highly uneven within states: Uttar Pradesh logged a 7.7% surplus overall yet 19 of 75 districts recorded deficient or scanty rains and four districts — Shamli, Deoria, Ghaziabad and Kushinagar — received under 40% of normal rainfall.
- Farmers kept planting higher‑return, water‑intensive crops — paddy acreage fell 3.6% from last year but remained 4.6% above normal and sugarcane acreage stayed above normal — increasing reliance on groundwater and raising input costs when rains are weak.
- Key uncertainties remain because official yield estimates are pending, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and coarse cereals look vulnerable to the skewed rains, and recent floods in Bihar and Assam plus drought pockets in Maharashtra and Karnataka could dent output and complicate rabi sowing.