Overview

• Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared at Tehran’s Ashura mourning event on July 5, marking his first public sighting since June 11.
• His absence coincided with Israeli airstrikes on nuclear and military sites on June 13 that prompted over 550 Iranian missile retaliations and subsequent U.S. bombings of key atomic installations.
• Tehran has halted cooperation with United Nations nuclear inspectors after claims that its atomic program was “obliterated” by allied strikes.
• Security analysts believe Khamenei sheltered in a secret underground bunker as Israel threatened to target him directly.
• Intense jockeying among IRGC and clerical factions for post-Khamenei succession authority underscores growing domestic volatility.