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2h ago

KFF: ACA Marketplace Premium Payments Would More Than Double in 2026 if Expanded Subsidies Expire

The projection reflects a new federal formula that raises required contributions for benchmark plans.

People sign up for health insurance through Covered California at the Asian Health Services offices in Oakland in January 2017. Nearly 1.7 million Californians could soon face steep increases in Covered California premiums if Congress does not extend federal subsidies.
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Open enrollment for Covered California begins Nov. 1, with renewal notices going out to enrollees in October. 
KFF bar chart titled “Premium payments in 2026 would more than double on average if ACA Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire.” The chart shows the annual out-of-pocket premium payments for Affordable Care Act Marketplace enrollees in 2025 and 2026. For 2025, the payment is $888, and for 2026, the projected payment is $1,904. This is an increase of 114%. Note: the 2026 average premium payment assumes gross premiums increase of 18% for those who lose tax credit eligibility.

Overview

  • If the enhanced subsidies lapse at year-end, subsidized enrollees’ average annual premium payments would jump 114%, from $888 in 2025 to about $1,904 in 2026, KFF estimates.
  • The enhanced credits, introduced in 2021 and extended through 2025, broadened eligibility above 400% of the poverty level and helped push marketplace enrollment above 24 million.
  • A Trump-era rule changes how tax credits are calculated in 2026, increasing the share of income consumers must pay, and insurers have proposed median premium hikes of about 18%.
  • KFF highlights wide variation in effects, including an estimated $22,600 yearly increase for a 60-year-old couple earning $85,000 and a shift from $0 to roughly $420 for a 45-year-old at $20,000 in a non-expansion state.
  • With Congress at an impasse over an extension as budget talks unfold, Covered California warns 1.67 million enrollees would face steep increases and as many as 400,000 could be priced out without action.