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2mo ago

Ken Paxton Leads John Cornyn by 22 Points in Texas GOP Senate Primary

Paxton’s lead among very conservative primary voters underscores deep party divisions that could effectively seal Texas’s Republican Senate nomination long before the general election.

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Texas Senator John Cornyn speaks with reporters in Washington, D.C. on April 7, 2025.
U.S. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) speaks with press after meeting with Customs and Border Patrol Commissioner nominee, Rodney Scott in the Hart Senate Office Building on April 07, 2025 in Washington, DC. Scott served in both the Trump and Biden administrations as the 24th chief of the United States Border Patrol from 2020 to 2024. (Kayla Bartkowski/Getty)

Overview

  • The Educational Freedom Institute poll by Robert Blizzard finds Paxton at 50 percent and Cornyn at 28 percent among Texas Republican primary voters.
  • Paxton holds 60 percent support to Cornyn’s 22 percent with very conservative GOP voters and leads by 35 points among self-identified MAGA voters.
  • An informed ballot test boosts Paxton’s advantage to 62 percent over Cornyn’s 21 percent when voters hear about Cornyn’s past comments on Trump and his work on bipartisan gun safety legislation.
  • Cornyn’s campaign is highlighting Paxton’s legal and ethical controversies and courting establishment backers as both seek a key endorsement from former President Trump.
  • Winning the Republican primary is widely seen as tantamount to victory in the general election in heavily Republican Texas.