Overview
- The move marks KDI’s first upward revision in a year, pointing to improving domestic demand and a modest recovery path.
- KDI projects export growth to slow to 1.3% next year from 4.1% this year, citing unresolved U.S. tariff measures and a pending Supreme Court decision on reciprocal tariffs.
- The institute warns that continued won depreciation near and above 1,450 per dollar could push inflation above the 2% target.
- Private consumption is forecast to grow 1.6% next year, and construction investment is expected to rebound 2.2% in 2026 after a 9.1% decline in 2025.
- KDI’s outlook aligns broadly with Bank of Korea and IMF forecasts, and it advises gradual fiscal normalization with monetary policy kept steady yet flexible to inflation risks.