Overview

• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said two quarter-point rate cuts by year-end seems reasonable to address a slowing economy and weakening labor market.
• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the central bank will likely need to adjust policy in the coming months and that tariffs are unlikely to have a persistent inflationary impact.
• A revised Bureau of Labor Statistics report cut roughly 258,000 jobs from prior months and raised July unemployment to 4.2 percent, highlighting growing labor market fragility.
• Investors now assign about a 95 percent probability to a September rate cut, reflecting rapid shifts in market sentiment.
• Federal Reserve dissent is expanding beyond traditional hawks as nonvoting presidents and dissenting governors join calls for policy easing.